Fashionable Key Rings Or Key Chains

Still Bearish On The Market? Here Are Several Stocks That The Bears love To Hate

If you are still bearish on the stock market, you will love John DelVecchio, one of the staunchest bears around. He insists equities will continue to tank.

He is co-portfolio manager at AdvisorShares Active Bear ETF (HDGE), the only actively managed “short-only” Exchange Traded Fund, which consists of 20 to 50 stocks. Many are widely held large-cap stocks, including Avon Products (AVP), Juniper Networks (JNPR), and Energizer Holdings (ENR).

DelVecchio isn’t one to beat around the bush when it comes to forecasting where the market will end up. He predicts that over the next six to 12 months, the S&P 500 stock index — whose fair value he puts at 800 — could “easily be trading at less than 1,000.” And the Dow Jones industrial average, he expects, will be below 10,000. The S&P on June 17 closed at 1,271.50 and the Dow finished at 12,004.36.

What’s the basis for his dire market outlook? “I think corporate earnings reports could disappoint, and the second half of the year could be very ugly,” he argues. Profit margins, he says, have generally reached peak levels, as costs have been spiking while incomes have been stagnant and unemployment still at very high levels. Moreover, the housing market is still in a funk and will remain so for years. He doesn’t think the economic recovery has legs because consumer spending is down as households have to pay down credit-card and other debts, with little improvement in their incomes.

How confident is DelVecchio that his stock choices will be winners once the market rallies and bounces back up? The idea doesn’t rattle him. He feels certain that regardless of what the market does, his short-only portfolio will be a winner.

During bull markets, the Active Bear fund seeks stocks it believes will underperform. And at market bottoms, its strategy is to pick high-quality companies but which still have earnings-quality problems. So, even when the market advances, they won’t appreciate as much as the market does.

“Because we are stock pickers, we look for companies that will be good shorts regardless of market environment,” says DelVecchio. He expects the stocks in the fund will see a decline of at least a 20% to 30% — in good or bad markets.

“We use a forensic accounting” approach to selecting stocks for our portfolio,” says DelVecchio. He looks for companies that use “accounting in an aggressive fashion to mask deterioration in their businesses.” Most people take a company’s reported results at face value, he notes. “We look beyond that, we read the financial statement, and question the sources earnings growth – and then “we build a portfolio of stocks that have more questions than answers,” says DelVecchio.

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Image by theother66 , 2009-02-17 09:48:26

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